High Demand for AI, Average ServerDRAM Capacity Increase by 17.3% in 2024
In 2024, the market will continue to focus on AI issues, and suppliers will launch high-end AI chips one after another. With the increase in computing speed, TrendForce said that the average capacity of DRAM and NAND Flash in all kinds of AI extended applications, such as smartphones, servers, and notebook PCs, will grow in 2024, with the highest growth rate in the server sector. The highest amplitude, Server DRAM stand-alone average capacity is estimated to increase by 17.3% per year; Enterprise SSD is estimated to increase by 13.2% per year.
Firstly, from the smartphone point of view, as mobile phone chip vendors mainly focus on the improvement of computing performance, there is no actual AI application launched, so the degree of topic fermentation is limited. Meanwhile, in 2023, memory prices will collapse rapidly due to oversupply in the market, and the attraction of relatively low prices will push up the average capacity of DRAM in smartphones in 2023 by 17.5%, while the average capacity of NAND Flash in smartphones by 19.2%, which is able to meet users' needs. Therefore, in 2024, with no new applications yet to be launched, the annual growth rate of the average capacity of DRAM or NAND Flash in smartphones will slow down to 11% and 9.3%, respectively.
In terms of servers, along with the continuous increase in demand for AI servers, AI high-end chips such as NVIDIA H200/B100, AMD MI350, and self-developed ASICs for cloud service providers (CSPs) have been launched or started mass production. However, because Training AI Server is the current market mainstream, its expansion of the memory used to help high-speed computing DRAM products are mainly, so compared to NAND Flash, DRAM, the average capacity of the single-machine load growth is higher, Server DRAM estimated annual growth rate of 17.3%, Enterprise SSD is about 13.2%. In terms of notebook computers, Microsoft's average capacity growth rate is 17.3%.
In terms of pen computers, the CPU power of AI PCs regulated by Microsoft needs to reach more than 40TOPS, and currently the ones that meet this specification are Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite, AMD Ryzen 8000 series (Strix Point), and Intel's Lunar Lake, but pen computers equipped with the above mentioned CPUs are not expected to be in production until the second half of this year. However, the mass-produced notebook PCs equipped with the above CPUs are not expected to be launched until the second half of this year, thus helping to raise the memory capacity is limited, and the main standard requirement of the AI PC hardware specification is to increase the DRAM capacity to 16GB, while the SSD does not stipulate that it must be upgraded to 1TB. Therefore, it is predicted that the average capacity of the single unit of DRAM in the notebook PCs will increase by about 12.4% per annum, and will only increase more significantly after the subsequent mass production of the AI PCs in 2025. The growth rate will be more obvious in 2025 with the mass production of AI PCs. As for Client SSD, although there is a rising trend in the average capacity of a single machine, but by the impact of NAND Flash prices have risen significantly, the annual growth rate is estimated to be only 9.7%.
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