AI Server and terminal AIPC development in 2024
TrendForce Tibbo Consulting expects that the global AI server (including AI Training and AI Inference) will exceed 1.6 million units in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 40%, and CSPs are subsequently expected to invest more actively.
As the rigorous Edge AI application will return to the terminal AI PC, to implement the dispersal of the workload capacity of AI servers, and to expand the possibility of the scale of AI use. Accordingly, TrendForce Consulting defines that AI PCs need to reach Microsoft's 40 TOPS arithmetic base, and new product shipments to meet this demand will fall in the second half of 2024, and only after CPU industry leader Intel launches Lunar Lake at the end of 2024 can we expect to see more rapid growth in 2025.
Currently, the AI PC market can be broadly divided into two major driving forces, one, driven by the demand for end-use applications, mainly by Microsoft with personal computers, Windows operating system and Office and other tools nearly monopolise the market position, is expected to push a new generation of Windows integration Copilot, prompting the Copilot into a hard demand. Secondly, Intel, the CPU leader, demands AI PC with CPU+GPU+NPU architecture to promote the development of various terminal AI applications.
In terms of Microsoft Copilot's requirements for computing power, Qualcomm's Snapdragon X Elite platform, which will be released at the end of 2023, will take the lead in shipping Copilot-compliant CPUs in the second half of 2024, with a computing power of up to 45 TOPS, while AMD's Ryzen 8000 series (Strix Point), which will be launched later, is also expected to be the first to meet Copilot's standards. The Ryzen 8000 series (Strix Point), which AMD will launch later, is also expected to meet this computing power specification. If Intel's Meteor Lake launched in December 2023, its CPU+GPU+NPU power is only 34 TOPS, which does not meet Microsoft's requirements, but it is expected that the Lunar Lake launched at the end of this year will have the opportunity to exceed the 40 TOPS threshold.
It is worth noting that, in the future, Qualcomm and Intel, AMD compete in the AI PC process, will also involve x86 and Arm two CPU camps in the Edge AI market competition. As Qualcomm is expected to take the lead in meeting Microsoft's needs, major PC OEMs such as Dell, HPE, LENOVO, or ASUS, ACER, etc. in 2024 will continue to develop models equipped with Qualcomm CPUs, in order to fight for the first wave of AI PC opportunities, which will bring a certain threat to the X86 camp.
AI PC is expected to drive the PC average carrying capacity increase, and raise the proportion of LPDDR PC DRAM Ctlesmc
From the point of view of existing Microsoft specifications for AI PCs, the basic demand for DRAM starts at 16GB. In the long run, TrendForce believes that AI PCs will have the opportunity to drive the annual growth in demand for PC DRAM bits, and that the subsequent wave of consumer replacements will increase the industry's demand for PC DRAM bits.
Furthermore, in terms of CPUs defined by Microsoft to meet the NPU 40 TOPS, there are three in total, and according to the order of shipment time, they are Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite, AMD Strix Point, and Intel Lunar Lake.
The common point of the three CPUs is that they all use LPDDR5x instead of the mainstream DDR SO-DIMM module, the main consideration is the increase in transmission speed; in terms of the DDR5 specification, the current speed is 4,800-5,600Mbps, while the LPDDR5x is 7,500-8,533Mbps, which will be of great help to AI PCs that need to accept more language commands and shorten response time. AI PCs that need to accept more language commands, and shorter response times will be helpful. Therefore, TrendForce expects that LPDDR will account for about 30~35% of PC DRAM demand this year, and will be supported by the specifications of CPU makers for AI PCs in the future, which will increase the proportion of LPDDR imports.
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