The advanced process chip market of 2024
The oversupply situation in the advanced process chip market has made the competition between the industry's top three, TSMC, Samsung Electronics and Intel, increasingly fierce. As of now, TSMC 3nm continues to be the market leader and has secured orders from most of the world's major customers.
In 2024, more customers will join the TSMC 3nm camp, including MediaTek, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, AMD, and even Intel.
NVIDIA's new H200 and AMD's MI300 will provide large orders for TSMC's 3nm process. Intel's next-generation low-power architecture Lunar Lake MX (LNL) CPUs will use TSMC's N3B process. Recently, TSMC has begun to accelerate its progress, and Arrow Lake H/HX's CPUs will also use the 3nm process, which is expected to further increase TSMC's capacity utilisation.
TSMC plans to increase 3nm capacity utilisation to 80% by the end of 2024 as demand for advanced processes continues to grow.
TSMC plans to launch a 2nm process in 2025, which will use a nanosheet process. Recently, TSMC has launched the 2nm trial production of front-end operations, is expected to introduce the most advanced AI system to accelerate the efficiency of trial production, the goal is to trial production of nearly 1,000 tablets this year, after the trial production is smooth, it will be introduced into the subsequent construction of the completion of the Zhuko BaoShan Fab 20 plant, by the plant team to take the lead in the sprint to the risk of the 2024 trial production and the target of mass production in 2025.
Samsung Electronics launched the second generation of 3nm process in 2023, plans to mass-produce 2nm in 2025, launched 1.4nm in 2027, to catch up with TSMC in 2030.
According to Korean media reports, Samsung has begun trial production of second-generation 3nm process (SF3) chips and test chip performance and reliability, the goal is to increase its yield rate to more than 60% within six months. It is reported that the first SF3 pilot production chip will be the application processor (AP) for the upcoming Galaxy Watch 7. Samsung values its cooperation with Qualcomm and NVIDIA, Qualcomm's new generation Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 is given to TSMC for production, NVIDIA's H200 and AMD's MI300X are also expected to use TSMC's 3nm process, and customers turning to TSMC will be expected to return if SF3's yield and performance are stable.
In 2025, Samsung will launch a 2nm (SF2) process, after which it will increase the number of nanosheets of transistors, which will enhance drive current, improve performance and reduce power consumption. The company has high hopes for the 2nm process, and according to Korean media reports, Samsung's foundry division is integrating advantageous resources to fast-track its 2nm production plan.
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