DRAM, NANDFlash Quarterly Contract Price Forecast 2024

For NAND Flash, contract prices have been falling for four consecutive quarters since the third quarter of 2022, rising in the third quarter of 2023. In the face of the market demand outlook for 2024 is still conservative premise, the price trend of both depends on the supplier capacity utilisation.

In terms of price trends in the first quarter, TrendForce maintains its previous forecast that DRAM contract prices will rise by about 13 to 18 per cent quarter-on-quarter, while NAND Flash prices will rise by 18 to 23 per cent. Although the market's view of overall demand in the second quarter is still conservative, DRAM and NAND Flash suppliers have already raised their capacity utilisation rates in the second half of the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 respectively, plus NAND Flash buyers will complete inventory replenishment one after another as early as in the first quarter. As a result, DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices converged to 3~8% in the second quarter.

As the third quarter enters the traditional peak season, the demand side is expected to see stronger replenishment from North American cloud service providers (CSPs), and on the premise that DRAM and NAND Flash capacity utilisation rates have yet to return to full capacity, there is a chance that the quarterly increase in both contract prices will expand to 8~13%. Among them, DRAM, due to DDR5 and HBM penetration rate increase, benefited from the average unit price increase, driven by the expansion of DRAM.

In the fourth quarter, under the premise that suppliers are able to maintain effective production control strategies, the uptrend should continue, and DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by 8~13% quarterly. It should be noted that the reason for the expansion of DRAM contract price increase is from the DDR5 and HBM products market penetration rate increase, if only observe a single product, such as DDR5, there may still be a quarterly decline, which means that this year's DRAM contract price increase is not a comprehensive rise in all particle categories, but rather a gradual shift in product categories. NAND Flash contract price quarterly increase is estimated to be 0~5%.

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